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中行预计中国首季GDP回落至7.4%

2014/3/28 11:08:51来源:联合早报 浏览 1 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:中国银行昨天发布的《2014年二季度经济金融展望报告》认为,今年一季度,中国经济下行压力明显增大,经济增速换档期、结构调整阵痛期、前期刺激政策消化期“三期叠加”风险较大。

  中国银行昨天发布的《2014年二季度经济金融展望报告》认为,今年一季度,中国经济下行压力明显增大,经济增速换档期、结构调整阵痛期、前期刺激政策消化期“三期叠加”风险较大。

  报告预计一季度中国国内生产总值(GDP)增长7.4%,较去年同期有所回落;二季度GDP增长7.5%左右,比一季度略有回升。

  中国银行首席经济学家曹远征表示,今年中国经济确实面临下行压力,但中行维持对全年经济的预期:2014年中国全年GDP增速为7.6%。

  但他也强调,这一预期是有前提条件的,即今年中国投资增速能维持去年的水平,增长20%以上;如果无法维持,经济或将下行。此外,债务风险也需要格外关注。

  中行国际金融研究所高级分析师周景彤另指出,受偏紧房地产信贷政策持续发酵的影响,二季度中国房地产市场可能进一步降温。
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