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新加坡去年12月工业产值料比前年低0.4%

2014/1/22 11:12:58来源:联合早报 浏览 1 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:新加坡去年12月的工业产值料将稍微比一年前低0.4%,而比起去年11月份(经季节调整后的环比)则料将上升1.9%。

  新加坡去年12月的工业产值料将稍微比一年前低0.4%,而比起去年11月份(经季节调整后的环比)则料将上升1.9%。

  这是路透社对13名经济师调查的结果,经济师对新加坡上个月的工业产值的预测中位数是同比下跌0.4%,环比上升1.9%。在去年11月份,新加坡工业产值同比上升4%,环比则下跌2.8%。

  这个调查结果,与本月较早时公布的12月份采购经理指数下跌至49.7的情况相符。去年3月至11月,该指数一直是在50以上,显示制造业处于扩张状态,上个月跌至50以下显示制造业将收缩。不过,新加坡优于预期的12月份非石油国内出口,仍有可能给予该月份的工业产值数字支持。

  路透社调查的经济师预测12月份工业产值同比变动介于下跌2.8%至上升4.5%,环比变动则介于0%至上升4.3%。这些经济师来自美银美林、巴克莱、联昌国际、瑞士信贷、摩根大通、野村、华侨银行等。

  联昌国际(CIMB)新加坡研究部主管兼区域经济师宋生文昨日受询时对早报表示:“我们都希望对12月份工业产值的预测是错误的——我们的预测是环比持平,同比稍微下跌0.4%。”

  他说,上个月工业产值同比预料将下跌,那是因为在2012年12月份,生物医药业和交通工程业有很强劲的表现,当时生物医药业当中的生物科技和药剂领域都取得月30%增长率,而交通工程业也有双位数的增长率,主要是海事和岸外工程行业表现强劲。如今船厂虽然仍然忙碌,但在新加坡要扩充产能并不容易。此外,药剂业在过去的一年里改变产品组合表现令人失望。因此,他认为要超越一年前的较高产值水平可能是个挑战。

  虽然如此,他预料第四季工业产值同比将增长3.5%至4%,这低于第三季的5%增长率。展望来年,他表示:“我们对2014年仍抱持希望,这是因为美国经济及至新加坡工业产值料持续复苏。电子业产值在去年初处于较低水平,也将推动今年初工业产值的增长表现。”
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