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狮城7月份非石油国内出口预计环比微扬同比下跌

2013/8/15 14:33:09来源:联合早报 浏览 3 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:经济师预计,新加坡7月份的非石油国内出口(NODX)预料将比6月份增加,从而在经季节性因素调整后取得环比增长,但如果与去年同期相比,则预计将继续出现同比下滑。

  经济师预计,新加坡7月份的非石油国内出口(NODX)预料将比6月份增加,从而在经季节性因素调整后取得环比增长,但如果与去年同期相比,则预计将继续出现同比下滑。

  路透社向12家分析机构取得的预测数据显示,经济师对新加坡7月份非石油国内出口的中位数预期是环比增长0.4%和同比下滑3.2%。7月份非石油国内出口数据将在明天出炉。

  大华银行(UOB)的预期最为乐观,其经济师相信7月份非石油国内出口将环比增长7%和同比增长3.5%,态度较悲观的则包括预计会环比下滑0.5%的花旗银行(Citi),以及预计会同比下滑4.9%的野村证券(Nomura)。

  新加坡贸易在今年上半年的表现并不是很好,非石油国内出口在第二季同比萎缩4.9%,贸易总额则在第二季滑落2%。

  所幸,两者的第二季表现都比第一季时的12.5%和9%同比跌幅来得好。

  由于上半年的整体走势疲弱,新加坡国际企业发展局(IE Singapore)本周一已经宣布,将全年非石油国内出口的增长预期从原本的2%至4%,下调到0%至1%。全年贸易总额的增长预期则从3%至5%,下调到2%至3%。

  分析师:贸易下半年料好转

       不过,多名分析师都预期,新加坡贸易将在下半年改善,特别是在电子业产值近期走势强劲的情况下。虽然产值的走高目前尚未反应在贸易数据上,但这意味着制造业者相信全球需求将好转,因此已经在提高产量。

  联昌国际(CIMB)经济师宋生文表示,各国包括采购经理指数在内的主要指标都显示全球需求在好转,而下半年通常也是需求更旺盛的时期,因此新加坡出口的疲弱预计会在下半年有所改善。

  渣打银行(Standard Chart-ered)经济师指出,新加坡净出口在第二季其实录得自前年第三季以来的首次年比增长,因此预计外部需求在第二季会继续改善,但需注意说要出现强劲反弹还是不太可能。

  美银美林(BofAML)经济师蔡学敏认为,新加坡经济对贸易的依赖性很大,而贸工部在贸易数据预期被调低的情况下依然上调了经济增长预期,这意味着政府看好全球经济的逐渐改善也将带动新加坡贸易出现复苏。
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