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7月数据显示中国经济企稳回升

2013/8/13 11:23:03来源:联合早报 浏览 4 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:中国近日公布的通货膨胀、工业产出、对外贸易等数据减缓了市场对这全球第二大经济体“降速、稳增长”所引发的短期隐忧。

  中国近日公布的通货膨胀、工业产出、对外贸易等数据减缓了市场对这全球第二大经济体“降速、稳增长”所引发的短期隐忧。

  多家外资银行的分析报告也指出,国务院总理李克强近期召开一系列会议所释放出的“经济保底”信号为整体经济企稳回升注入了信心,为下半年开了个好头,并对中国全年保持7.5%的经济增长持乐观态度。

  假定“不差钱”投资模式

  分析师:料一去不返


  不过值得注意的是,尽管7月份新增人民币贷款好于预期,该月新增社会融资总量却大幅缩水,创下自2011年10月以来的新低。

  华侨银行经济分析师谢栋铭昨日指出,过往假定“不差钱”的投资拉动经济增长模式料会一去不复返。随着金融体系的改革和金融资源的重新整合,资金来源可能会出现限制,也许短期会侵蚀中国投资拉动的功效,但长远来看应是件好事。

  中国近期公布的一系列7月份宏观经济数据多数好过市场预期。继中国7月份进出口一改6月份双萎缩出现双增长之后,国家统计局上周五公布的7月份居民消费价格总水平(CPI)同比上涨2.7%,低于市场预期的2.8%,使到外界对全年CPI保持在3.5%之内基本不存怀疑。

  7月份工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)同比下降2.3%,尽管低于市场预期的下降2.1%的数值,和6月份相比已是收窄了0.4个百分点。

  受到大宗商品补库存的支持,上个月中国工业产出较6月份的8.9%大幅反弹至9.7%,其中钢铁和有色金属产出由6月份的同比增长7.2%和6.7%,各增加至10.9%和9.8%。

  谢栋铭认为,工业产出向好数据反映出中国新领导层对经济底线和下限的重新定义,似乎再次为经济注入信心。主要大宗商品的产出反弹和主要大宗商品进口的快速上升,似乎还显示中国贸易商和制造业者依然对以投资拉动的经济增长模式抱有希望。
不过补库存所带动的工业产出反弹是否可持续,他昨天在分析报告中表示,7月份零售销售同比增幅略有回落,汽车销售仅同比上升9.1%,还需要等未来几个月的数据才能判定。

  固定资产投资方面,中国1至7月份的固定资产投资同比增长20.1%,较上半年增幅保持不变。谢栋铭说,随着近期政府对包括铁路等基建项目重新展开支持,固定资产投资增速下滑势头有望趋缓;但鉴于目前资金来源不稳定性增加,固定资产大幅度反弹的可能性也不大。

  中央“变通”刺激地方经济?

  美银美林和汇丰银行昨天发布的分析报告指,铁路投资、中小企业和服务行业减税、部分投资审批程序简化和银根不再收紧,都在给市场焦虑“降温”,美银美林的报 告还称,7月份的利好数据或暗示,市场不能再期待当局会发出大的经济刺激配套。不过,也并不等同于地方不能通过变通方式,获得中央的信贷支持。

 
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