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泰国今年GDP预期值下调至4.5%

2013/6/28 15:12:09来源:泰国世界日报 浏览 5 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:泰国国家经济社会发展委员会办公室副秘书长波拉眉提在题为“突破下半年风险因素”研讨会上发言时表示,世界经济复苏未达如期目标,4、5月份的经济数字表现欠佳,使得要将国内生产总值(GDP)预测增长速度由5%下修为4.7%,而且形势正如预测般发展,因存在的积极因素正减少转弱,今年下半年必须警惕境外资金在年底期间涌入,因世界经济复苏不尽如人意。而加强发展旅游业,是因为旅游业是今年下半年主要的驱动因素。

  泰国国家经济社会发展委员会办公室副秘书长波拉眉提在题为“突破下半年风险因素”研讨会上发言时表示,世界经济复苏未达如期目标,4、5月份的经济数字表现欠佳,使得要将国内生产总值(GDP)预测增长速度由5%下修为4.7%,而且形势正如预测般发展,因存在的积极因素正减少转弱,今年下半年必须警惕境外资金在年底期间涌入,因世界经济复苏不尽如人意。而加强发展旅游业,是因为旅游业是今年下半年主要的驱动因素。

  泰国财政部经济办公室主任颂猜透露,财政部降低2013年经济增长预期值由原来的4.8%以上调低至4.5%。因为与泰国有重要经贸合作的国家经济增长放缓,如:中国、美国、欧洲,致使出口业增长放缓,财政部因此将今年出口增长预期值从原来的9%下调至5.5%。同时,民企方面的消费也开始放缓,民营投资增长预期值也从原来的9.3%降至5.7%,部分农民家庭收入也有可能减少,尤其是橡胶种植户。

  颂猜说,一般通膨率也从原来预期的3%降至2.5%,因为估计石油价格将会降至每桶106美元。预计今年第2季度经济增长可达4%,第3、4季度增长将超过4%。政府方面的经济刺激政策要到年底才会产生明显效果,但相信外资的撤离只是短暂现象,不久将继续回到泰国市场。目前刺激经济增长的最主要因素是即将落实的政府项目投资,如:治水专案、基建专案等。同时旅游方面也是刺激经济增长的重要因素。

  大城银行(BAY)资深经理隆萨说,2013年泰国经济的增长预计为4-4.5%,低于预期的4.8-5.3%。下半年的增长预计仅为3.5-4%,低于上半年4.7%的增长。主要是因为世界经济的放缓导致泰国出口增长放缓,预计2013年出口增长仅3-5%。同时,国民购买力变弱,政府刺激政策的放缓也是造成增长降低的重要因素。

  值得关注的重要因素是美联储在量化宽松政策(QE)方面的举动;中国经济增长放缓;欧洲经济低迷以及国内政局的不稳定、劳力的缺乏等,这些都是对经济增长带来负面影响的因素。促进经济增长的正面因素则是政府方面的治水项目及基建专案的投资。另外,目前利息走势也有利于经济的增长。

  沙炎水泥(SCC)董事长乃甘承认在过去的4、5月份出口受泰铢升值和波动影响,虽然美国经济复苏有起色,但对外国产品的需求在近期内还未能将积极效应传输给泰国出口,而中国经济也开始出问题,因此要对外部因素更加小心。为此,建议内阁新班子为受资金大批涌入涌出影响的民间企业提供帮助和扶持时,要全面衡量,因为泰铢升值和贬值均对民间企业带来双方面的影响,并且要重视民间企业的发展,要将民间企业当作推动国家经济增长的动力。至于2兆预算的国家基础设施投资规划和综合治理水资源计划,估计至今年底仍未能动工的投入开支,但是相信相关规划马上启动将为民间企业注入信心。
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