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上周五回弹 海指本周仍面对下压

2013/6/17 10:55:55来源:联合早报 浏览 5 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:虽然新加坡股市在上周五止跌回弹,不过分析师认为,周五的技术性回弹基础薄弱,新加坡海峡时报指数本周依然面对下压,关键要看美国联邦储备局主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在本地时间星期四凌晨发表的最新货币政策演说。

  虽然新加坡股市在上周五止跌回弹,不过分析师认为,周五的技术性回弹基础薄弱,新加坡海峡时报指数本周依然面对下压,关键要看美国联邦储备局主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在本地时间星期四凌晨发表的最新货币政策演说。

  海指在上周下滑到3161.43点,一周跌幅0.73%。各领域股指也全线滑落。自5月22日伯南克首次引爆第三轮量化宽松(QE3)退市论后,海指已连续四个星期收跌,期间累积滑落8.5%。

  区域股市在上周也普遍滑落,日经指数一周跌1.5%,恒生指数一周跌2.8%。欧美方面,Euro Stoxx指数一周跌2.1%,道琼斯指数一周跌1.2%。

  德意志摩根建富(DMG & Partners)高级副总裁颜子伟认为,5月22日持续至今的市场情绪演变,将导致伯南克在本周的讲话异常审慎。他的一字一句将决定股市星期四以后的短期走势。

  证券投资者协会研究行(SIAS Research)总裁陈一帆则认为,联储局总会在某些时刻释放一些信息来试探股市和债市的反应。随着金融市场价格过去四周激烈下调,联储局将非常小心处理QE3的退市课题。

  由于市场本周将聚焦于联储局,陈一帆预测,投资者在明后两天可能会抱持乐观的期望,推动股市短暂回弹。海指当前的阻力点在3200点,但如果再度下挫,守不住3100点的话,下一个支持点会在3000点。

  颜子伟则表示,海指主要的支持点在过去几周都已相继失守,3100点只是心理支持点,一旦失守,将一路下探2950点。

  受访的分析师都表示,联储局下周的会议结果取决于美国最新经济数据所呈现的走势。

  美国上周的首次领取失业救济金人数为33万4000人,低于市场预期,显示就业市场情况相对稳定。反应消费者情绪的零售销售在5月份环比增长0.6%,也略高于市场预期。

  不过,美国制造业的走势继续疲弱,5月份工业产值跟4月份比没有取得增长,低于市场原先预期的0.2%。

  国际货币基金组织(IMF)在上周五宣布维持美国今年的经济增长预测在1.9%,但基于财政开支削减对经济的冲击将逐渐显现,它把美国明年的经济预测从3.0%调降至2.7%。

  IMF也呼吁联储局至少将QE3现有的力度维持到今年底。

  关注伯南克对通胀预期看法

  星展集团研究行的最新报告建议投资者关注伯南克在本周四的演说对通胀预期的看法,观察他的措辞是否会比上一次略微放松。如果通胀预期走软,意味量化宽松要达成的2%通胀目标,距离又拉远了。美国5月份的通胀数字将在明晚公布。

  不过,颜子伟表示,不论联储局如何表态,他对亚洲股市的中期前景都是看跌,投资者必须关注大量资金撤离亚洲的现象,因为中国和印度的经济增长放缓开始让投资者真正感到忧心。

  华侨银行财富管理副总裁华素梅农(Vasu Menon)也在新发表的报告中指出,虽然他对股市中期的展望保持乐观,尤其美国和日本,不过对日本以外的亚洲市场前景整体偏向谨慎。
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