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泰国再爆发金融风暴可能性低

2013/5/7 14:42:07来源:泰国世界日报 浏览 3 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:泰国商会大学经济商业预测中心负责人他纳瓦认为,泰国很难再发生第2轮亚洲金融风暴危机,原因是金融安全体制更加健全,不像1997年前那样发生问题就导致严重后果。同时指出如有人能引发1997年那样的金融危机,证明该人有超常的能力。

  泰国商会大学经济商业预测中心负责人他纳瓦认为,泰国很难再发生第2轮亚洲金融风暴危机,原因是金融安全体制更加健全,不像1997年前那样发生问题就导致严重后果。同时指出如有人能引发1997年那样的金融危机,证明该人有超常的能力。

  泰国中央银行管理委员会主席威拉蓬担心央行与财政部长在使用政策利率手段解决泰铢升值问题方面上存在分歧矛盾,并指出可能导致新一轮经济危机。对此,他纳瓦表示不支持,理由是现时情况与1997年金融风暴时已经大有不同,当时泰国外债超过1,000亿美元,其中短期外债接近400亿美元。此外,当时泰铢受到攻击,泰国央行动用外汇储备进行阻击,努力维持泰铢汇率在25铢兑1美元的水平,相当于不设有保险丝系统,电击一下就爆发危机。

  他纳瓦表示,现时金融体系则具有较健全的保险安全体制,当发生泰铢过分升值时,经济活动就会降低收缩,最后结果是外国投资者不来投资,股票会下跌,流入资金减少,泰铢自然就疲软,出口会得到恢复,泰铢币值就会自动调节至合适水平。

  此外,经营界也发生较大的调整,民间债务水平不太高,而且重要的是现在国家外债水平约为600亿美元,但国家外汇储备却高达1,800亿美元。综合上述因素可以得到金融风暴难以再次发生的结论。如果有谁能再引发1997年的金融风暴,说明该人具有超乎正常的能力。
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