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泰国明年经济预计增长5% 与今年基本持平

2012/12/17 10:44:44来源:联合早报 浏览 11 次我要评论(0) 字体:T | T

导语:泰国著名智库开泰研究中心预测,泰国经济明年将增长5%,与今年基本持平。世界经济总体回暖带来的出口复苏,将成为推动经济发展的主要动力。

  泰国著名智库开泰研究中心预测,泰国经济明年将增长5%,与今年基本持平。世界经济总体回暖带来的出口复苏,将成为推动经济发展的主要动力。

  开泰研究中心副总经理裴梦婉昨天在“2013年经济与企业展望”新闻发布会上介绍,2013年世界各主要国家和地区经济将陆续缓慢复苏,以出口为主导的泰国经济将再次获得动力,商品需求以及价格的双重上升,有望推动出口实现12.5%的增长目标,高于今年的4.0%。

  裴梦婉说,在2011年特大洪灾后,泰国政府一方面加大在大型基础设施建设等方面的投资,另一方面适时出台了多项刺激经济的惠民政策,如首套房和首辆车退税政策、降低企业所得税等,从而使得2012年民间消费与投资大幅度增长,分别较上年同期上涨5.7%和11.7%,成为推动经济复苏的主要动力。

  但由于国内需求的提前预支,2013年民间消费与投资预计分别增长3.5%和7.1%,对经济的拉动作用相对放缓。

  从行业方面来看,外国投资者比较重视的汽车、橡胶、建筑、信息技术和电子行业有望实现较大幅度增长。汽车出口预计增长20%至26%,橡胶出口从去年的负31%的增长率反弹至15%至20%。相比之下,传统的食品、服务等行业则只有温和增长。

  开泰研究中心提出,除世界整体经济形势仍然不明朗外,2013年泰国经济发展面临的挑战还包括世界能源价格高企,以及由最低日薪标准上调、减少对油价补贴等政策引发的国内生产成本增加和通货膨胀反弹。预计明年的通胀率将达到3.3%,高于今年的3.0%。

  泰国政府自今年5月起开始在曼谷、普吉等七府施行最低日薪300泰铢(约合10美元)的工资标准,2013年1月1日起将推广至全国。开泰研究中心认为,这一政策将对劳动密集型行业产生冲击。
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